The effect of Trade Balance on Economic Growth of Iraq

Abstract

This research aims to test the existence of a joint integration between the trade balance and economic growth in Iraq for the period 1985-2022 using an autoregressive distributed lag model. The study results showed a direct and significant relationship between exports and economic growth, according to economic theory. The study also showed an inverse and insignificant relationship between imports and economic growth, according to economic theory. It also showed a direct and significant relationship between the trade balance and economic growth, according to economic theory. The study also recommended the need to enhance and diversify exports and reduce dependence on oil in exports. The export structure must be diversified and a group of export commodities must be introduced, by encouraging innovation and developing new industries.